Is “Everything, Everywhere, All At Once” a favorite for the Best Picture Oscar?

Tuesday’s Oscar nominations dropped the jaws many have been waiting for. Some met with joy, and others with sorrow.

Social media and awards expert circles have touted Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert’s “Everything Everywhere All at Once” as an undisputed favorite for most of awards season. With 11 nominations in the lead, it’s in a strong position to win Best Photo Statuette for distributor A24, the same studio that made the memorable “Moonlight” upset “La La Land” at the 2017 show. A24 led the day for the studios with a resounding 18 nominations, with Netflix in second with 16.

The multiverse film landed expected names to star – Michelle Yeoh, Ke Huy Quan, Jamie Lee Curtis and Stephanie Hsu – but faltered in craft runs like costume design, original score and original song. However, holding the title of “one to beat” can bring out the clutches of other studios and strategists who want to impose themselves. Notably, in the expanded Best Picture era (since 2009), the film with the most Oscar nominations has only won four times – “The Hurt Locker” (2009), “The King’s Speech” (2010), “Birdman” (2014) and “The Shape of Water” (2017). But, before Film Twitter gets the ball rolling, that race is far from over, with influential industry groups still to weigh in, such as DGA, BAFTA, PGA and SAG.

We like to look at the stats or precursors that usually dictate an Oscar winner. Yet many have been snapped in this era, most recently with “CODA” (2021), an unnamed winner for directing or any technical category, as well as DGA misfires, which no film of the modern era has ever seen. was able to achieve.

In Tuesday’s nominations, we saw a few of those trailblazers crumble.

Best Actor Run is comprised of all first-time nominees – Austin Butler (“Elvis”), Colin Farrell (“The Banshees of Inisherin”), Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”), Paul Mescal (“Aftersun “) and Bill Nighy (“alive”). It hadn’t happened since the three-person formation of Clark Gable, Frank Morgan and William Powell in 1934. As for who wins the category, Butler, Farrell and Fraser each have a TV award, with BAFTA on the horizon. Britain’s electoral bloc appears to be favoring Martin McDonagh’s Irish dark comedy, which could give Farrell the edge, but SAG will have the final say before the final vote opens.

Aside from Farrell, “Banshees” had a strong showing, which by traditional standards for what wins best picture, is the only other film outside of “Everything Everywhere” with the precursor makeup to go so far. at the end. Though Martin McDonagh made up for his 2017 “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” (2017) directing snob, it’s hard to find a clear path to Academy success for “Banshees.” The directors’ race looks like a battle between Steven Spielberg (“The Fabelmans”) and the Daniels. The race for the original script is also favored for “Everything Everywhere” (even if it is not the best picture). The same British electoral bloc that secured nine names for the “Banshees” could vote with German war drama “All Quiet on the Western Front” and Palme d’Or winner “Triangle of Sadness.”

‘All Quiet’, which tied with ‘Banshees’ for second-most nominations, became the third remake of a former Best Picture winner to be recognized, following 1962’s ‘Mutiny on the Bounty’ and ‘West Side Story” (2021). The inclusion of Edward Berger’s powerful drama provided a resounding sigh of relief for Netflix after showing its vulnerability with its other struggling titles on the circuit, like “Glass Onion” (only able to pull together a suitable script), ” Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” (unable to capitalize on additional tech names) and “Bardo” (overcoming mixed reviews to nab the cinematography).

Universal Pictures’ “The Fablemans” had a good enough morning to remain a viable contender for the top prize, with some shortcomings (like cinematography and editing) that suggest the race is still on. Not only is Spielberg now tied with Martin Scorsese as the second most nominated director with nine, but his personal drama marks his 13th film to be nominated for Best Picture, which ties William Wyler as the director with the most nominated films.

For “The Fabelmans,” Michelle Williams’ best acting bid made it across the finish line. Still, with no other industry awards up for grabs until Oscar night and strong performances from contestants Cate Blanchett (“Tár”) and Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere”), she’s likely a distant third ( the best).

Speaking of Best Actress, the shocker of the day was undoubtedly England star Andrea Riseborough for her role as a Texas single mother who wins the lottery in the Michael Morris drama “To Leslie” from independent distributor Momentum Pictures. The grassroots campaign kicked into overdrive at the peak of Oscar voting, where prominent members of the acting branch including Amy Adams, Edward Norton, Charlize Theron and Kate Winslet held screenings. Riseborough has garnered a lot of respect from the Hollywood community and moviegoers alike, with roles in former top films like ‘Birdman’ (2014). His inclusion is worth celebrating and will likely inspire future campaigns by actors whose studios don’t have the financial means to mount award campaigns for their performers.

Austin Butler as Elvis Presley in “Elvis”
©Warner Bros/courtesy Everett Collection

“Elvis” performed on par with what the pundits had projected, picking up several tech names but missing out on Baz Luhrmann. However, the Australian author is nominated for Best Picture as a Producer alongside his wife, Catherine Martin. Martin is also the most nominated woman of the year, with additional names in production design and costuming, both of which are within reach of the four-time winner. The biopic about the King of Rock and Roll also scored names for cinematographer Mandy Walker, who also landed an ASC name. It comes after Claudio Miranda’s most shocking snub of the day for “Top Gun: Maverick,” which was favored to run away with the award. With Roger Deakins’ “Empire of Light” and Darius Khondji’s “Bardo” as the only nominees for their films, and Florian Hoffmeister (“Tár”) and James Friend (“All Quiet on the Western Front”) miss the ASC, the category is in a state of flux. Only twice has a film won the cinema without a nod to the ASC – “Glory” (1989) and “Pan’s Labyrinth” (2006).

Todd Field’s return to filmmaking after 16 years was warmly received by the Academy, with “Tár” landing six massive nods, including two for craftsmen many weren’t expecting. So naturally, this spurs Blanchett’s awards race to win her third statuette. Still, with the disappointing underperformance of women of color in the lead actress, following snubs from Viola Davis (“The Woman King”) and Danielle Deadwyler (“Till”), Yeoh could work her way up to the top. forefront of tight racing.

Neon’s “Triangle of Sadness” managed to repeat the same nomination composition as Paul Thomas Anderson’s “Licorice Pizza” (2021). It got names for the original screenplay and direction by Ruben Östlund, as well as best picture (unfortunately without actress Dolly De Leon).

Also reminiscent of another single Best Picture nominee, MGM/UAR’s “Women Talking” limped into the morning with just two Best Picture nominees and an adapted screenplay for Sarah Polley. Similarly, in the first year of the best picture extension at 10, the Coen Brothers’ “A Serious Man” (2009) landed only one picture and one original screenplay.

“Avatar: The Way of the Water”
©Walt Disney Co./Courtesy Everett Collection

While the box office is robust for “Avatar: The Way of Water,” which recently topped $2 billion, it drew a modest four mentions, down from the original’s nine nods. The other sequel, “Top Gun: Maverick,” took off with six, including an adapted screenplay. But, of course, a ranked ballot can be a film like “Top Gun’s best friend” – as we know, it’s “most loved” that wins best picture, rather than “most loved “.

Other notable mentions include Judd Hirsch breaking the record for the longest gap between a first and second nomination, long held by Henry Fonda. Hirsch’s first name for “Ordinary People” (1980) came 42 years before his second supporting actor offer for “The Fabelmans.” Meanwhile, Angela Bassett’s nod to “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” came with another love in the craft and will likely provide an unbroken winning streak at Dolby Theater on March 12.

Regarding the ceremony itself, the Academy has a gift in the race for original songs with Lady Gaga (“Hold My Hand” from “Top Gun: Maverick”), Rihanna (“Lift Me Up” from “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever “), David Byrne (“This Is a Life” from “Everything Everywhere All at Once”), Sofia Carson (“Applause” from “Tell It Like a Woman” and the dance sensations of NTR Jr. and Ram Charan (“Naatu Naatu” of “RRR”) on deck for (hopefully) all to perform. The producers should organize the evening around these powerhouses.

For now, we are venturing into an elongated phase two.

The first winning predictions are below:

Best Picture:
“Everywhere Everywhere All at once” (A24)

Director:
Steven Spielberg, “The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)

Actor:
Brendan Fraser, “The Whale” (A24)

Actress:
Michelle Yeoh, “Everything everywhere at the same time” (A24)

Supporting actor:
Ke Huy Quan, “Everything everywhere all at once” (A24)

supporting actress:
Angela Bassett, “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (Marvel Studios)

Original screenplay:
“Everything everywhere all at once” (A24) – Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert

Adapted scenario:
“Women Who Speak” (MGM/UAR) – Sarah Polley

Animated feature:
“Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” (Netflix) – Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson, Gary Ungar and Alex Bulkley

production design:
“Elvis” (Warner Bros.) – Catherine Martin, Karen Murphy, Bev Dunn

Cinematography:
“All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix) – James Friend

costume design:
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (Marvel Studios) – Ruth Carter

Film editing:
“Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures) – Eddie Hamilton

Make-up and hairstyle:
“The Batman” (Warner Bros.) – Naomi Donne, Mike Marino and Mike Fontaine

Sound:
“Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures) – Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor

Visual effects:
“Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures) – Ryan Tudhope, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson and Scott R. Fisher

Original score:
“The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures) – John Williams

original song:
“Naatu Naatu” from “RRR” (Variance Films) – Music by MM Keeravaani; Lyrics of Chandrabose

Documentary feature film:
“All That Breathes” (HBO/Sideshow Documentary Films) – Shaunak Sen, Aman Mann & Teddy Leifer

International characteristic:
“All calm on the Western Front” (Germany)

Animated short film:
“The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse” (Apple TV+) – Charlie Mackesy and Matthew Freud

Documentary short film:
“The Martha Mitchell Effect” (Netflix) – Anne Alvergue and Beth Levison

Live action short film:
“An Irish Goodbye” (Floodlight Pictures) – Tom Berkeley and Ross White

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